A Snapshot combines summary descriptions of each future written as though it has already occurred. They describe the outside world our organization will face in each scenario, and provide a set of indicators whose occurrence will reflect that a particular scenario is unfolding.
To begin the process of writing these snapshots, we split our Board into two task forces, each one tasked with writing the indicators and descriptions for the futures associated with one of the megatrends. In other words, given the two alternate futures described for their assigned megatrend, each task force had to think carefully about our environment and identify the factors that would not only be different in each of the different futures, but by clearly stating those differences, provide us with a set of indicators to watch to help us understand which future the industry was actually moving towards.
For the sake of example, let me first share just one of the indicators that the task force assigned the "Workforce" megatrend developed. Remember that for this megatrend, the Board has already defined two possible futures for the industry: (1) Fluid power has an EASIER time finding the skill sets it needs for growth and innovation; or (2) Fluid power has a HARDER time finding the skill sets it needs for growth and innovation.
Indicator: EDUCATION
EASIER: Engineering and technical programs HAVE increased their focus on fluid power and HAVE produced more fluid power-capable employees for the industry.
HARDER: Engineering and technical programs HAVE NOT increased their focus on fluid power and HAVE NOT produced more fluid power-capable employees for the industry.
In this one example you can perhaps see what the snapshots are driving at. Choosing the broad topic of EDUCATION, the task force had to describe its state five years into the future, assuming in turn that each of the two alternate futures had come true. In many cases, like this one, this process creates two simple and opposite statements about the possible futures. In other words:
In a future where our industry is having an EASIER time finding the skill sets it needs for growth and innovation, engineering and technical programs WILL HAVE increased their focus on fluid power and WILL HAVE produced more fluid power-capable employees for the industry.
While:
In a future where our industry is having a HARDER time finding the skills sets it needs for growth and innovation, engineering and technical programs WILL NOT HAVE increased their focus on fluid power and WILL NOT HAVE produced more fluid power-capable employees for the industry.
The goal of this exercise is not to come up with a single set of descriptions for the one indicator that will tell us definitely the impact the megatrend in question will have on our industry. It is instead to come up with as many relevant indicators and plausible descriptions as possible so that, when taken as a whole, they paint an accurate picture of the world the industry may find itself in.
Perhaps the easiest way to show this is to list only the descriptions associated with one of the two Workforce futures. Looking only through that lens, and after a good ninety minutes of discussion, the task force, I believe, created a compelling description of one possible future for our industry.
In a future where our industry is having an EASIER time finding the skill sets it needs for growth and innovation:
1. Engineering and technical programs have increased their focus on fluid power and have produced more fluid power-capable employees for the industry.
2. Automation, including collaborative robots, has increasingly been used to fulfill tasks previously performed by people.
3. Consolidation trends have had a synergistic impact on the industry’s employee base, and have released more talent into the market.
4. Fluid power companies have increased wages to a degree that helps attract the right talent.
5. Fluid power companies have changed their standards to allow more flexibility in culturally-driven behaviors (legal drug use, social media, etc.).
6. Fluid power companies have increased their use of internships and apprenticeships.
7. People expected to retire have not.
8. Electrification has increased to a point that it has replaced more fluid power applications, lowering the need for fluid power-specific talent.
9. Fluid power companies have increased their sourcing from overseas to deal with the lack of U.S.-based expertise.
10. Fluid power has leveraged the IoT trend to create exciting product and employment opportunities. As a result, the pool of candidates interested in our industry has increased.
11. Changes in tax, immigration and export policies have created less demand for U.S. jobs.
Now, one of the most important aspects of this list is that it makes no mention of our association and what it is doing or intends to do. That discussion comes later in Step Four. But, before going there, we have to discuss how these descriptions combine together into different snapshots, similar to the way the futures combine together into different scenarios.
I'll tackle that in the next post in this series.
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This post first appeared on Eric Lanke's blog, an association executive and author. You can follow him on Twitter @ericlanke or contact him at eric.lanke@gmail.com.
Image Source
https://www.linux.com/learn/how-easily-roll-back-changes-snapper
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